US: NFP likely to print 160k for November – NBF

Analysts at National Bank Financial suggest that in the US, the most important piece of news will be November’s non-farm payrolls and with jobless claims continued to hover near 50-year lows in the month which is hinting at a very subdued rate of layoffs.

Key Quotes

“Hiring in the private sector, meanwhile, may have improved somewhat judging from Markit’s flash composite PMI report which showed employment advancing for the first time in three months. The end of the strike at GM should also prop up payrolls.”

“Accordingly, we’re calling for a slight acceleration in employment creation to 160K, a level still significantly above what the Atlanta Fed considers sufficient to absorb new entrants to the labour market and keep the unemployment rate steady over the long term (+110K/month).”

“The unemployment rate, for its part, may stay unchanged at 3.6% if, as we believe, the household survey shows only a small decline in employment following outsized gains in previous months.”