RBA’s Debelle: Keynote address at the 14th Annual Risk Australia Conference

RBA's deputy Governor, Debelle, is crossing the wires with a Keynote Address At the 14th Annual Risk Australia Conference.

Key comments:

• Evidence that fall in house prices has reached its end, may start supporting consumption.
• Assumes households will spend around half of tax refunds.
• Do not expect much of an increase in wages growth, employment seen "reasonable".
• Primary risk to domestic economy is outlook for consumption.
• Trade is increasingly being used as a bargaining tool of choice.
• China stimulus has, so far, offset impact of trade dispute on Australia.
• Firms might have to chose between east and west rather than selling into global market.
• Sino-US. trade dispute causing significant uncertainty for business.
• Plausible that effects of technology dispute will be larger than that of tariffs.
• Businesses waiting to see how uncertainty resolves rather than invest.
• Says reluctance to invest runs the risk of a self-fulfilling downturn.

FX implications: 

There was a brief pop to the downside but the markets are dead, awaiting the Australian Unemployment data as the main driver for the day ahead.