UK: Difficult to force a no-deal Brexit – Danske Bank

According to Danske Bank analysts, while Boris Johnson is more pro-Brexit than Theresa May, the arithmetic in the House of Commons does not change. It will be difficult to force a no-deal Brexit through.

Key Quotes

“Our base case is a further extension but it is not a high conviction call. We need to monitor whether and if the dynamics in British politics change. The uncertainty is whether there will be snap election.”

“The range of possible outcomes is likely to be 0.86 (if Brexit-related news improves markedly) to 0.91 (against expectation but if we see much weaker data and/or by pricing a higher probability of no-deal Brexit.”