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IMF: Current and contemplated US-China tariffs could reduce global GDP growth by 0.5% in 2020

In a briefing note for G20 finance ministers and central bank governors, IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde said that the "current and contemplated" tariffs between the U.S. and China could cause the global growth to decline by 0.5% in 2020.

Key quotes (via Reuters)

  • Global GDP loss from U.S.-China tariffs could reach $455 bln, larger than south Africa's annual economic output.
  • Escalating U.S.-China tariffs are 'self-inflicted wounds that must be avoided', trade barriers should be reversed.
  • Efforts to modernize wto rules on subisidies, intellectual property and services should be stepped up.
  • Incoming data suggests that global growth slowdown may have bottomed out, with some firming in growth projected for 2020.
  • Global growth outlook vulnerable to trade tensions, Brexit, uncertain recoveries in Argentina and Turkey.
  • If global growth falters, policy makers should act in a coordinated fashion with 'decisively' eased monetary policy, stimulus in countries with fiscal space.

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