US: Steady personal consumption growth to start Q4 - Nomura

In the US, the October retail sales report suggests steady personal consumption growth to start Q4 despite a transitory boost from volatile components, according to analysts at Nomura.

Key Quotes

“Total retail sales increased 0.8% m-o-m in October, above expectations (Nomura: 0.6%, Consensus: 0.5%), following a downwardly revised 0.1% decline in September (previously reported as +0.1%).”

“The headline reading was boosted by a strong jump in sales at auto and auto parts dealerships.”

“Core (“control group”) retail sales rose 0.3% m-o-m in October following a similar gain in September, slightly below our and market expectations of a 0.4% m-o-m gain. However, downward revisions to September and August core retail sales suggest that PCE growth was likely weaker than expected near end-Q3.”