GBP/JPY in consolidation mode, gyrates 1H 200-MA

• GBP/JPY is stuck in a 200-pip range for almost two-weeks.
• Signs of bearish exhaustion, but needs a convincing bullish move to confirm a bottom.

GBP/JPY posted a big "long-tailed" doji candle on Feb. 14, signaling the sell-off from  Feb. 2 high of 156.61 has run its course.  

However, the bulls have not been able to capitalize on the opportunity, indicates the price action of the last two weeks. Moreover, the pair has been restricted to a narrow range of 148.50-150.40 and more importantly has been struggling to hold on to gains above the psychological level of 150.00.

Also, the range has been established around the 200-hour moving average (MA). A convincing break above 150.86 (100-day MA) would add credence to "long-tailed" doji candle of Feb.14 and confirm a short-term bearish-to-bullish trend change.

As of writing, the pair is trading at 149.46 (200-hour MA). The weaker-than-expected UK BRC shop price index for February (-0.8% y/y vs. expected -0.6%) and a drop in the GFK consumer confidence (-10 in Feb from Jan figure of -9) released in Asia has not had any impact on the GBP pairs.

That said, a strong upside move could be seen if the equities stay resilient in the face of rising bond yields.

GBP/JPY Technical Levels

A break above 150.00 (psychological level) would open doors for 150.86 (100-day MA), above which a major resistance is seen directly at 151.98 (50-day MA). On the downside, breach of support at 148.54 (Feb. 22 low) would allow for a deeper drop to 147.96 (Feb. 14 low) and 147.75 (200-day MA).