RBNZ: Expect no hike in the OCR until late-2019 - Westpac

Analysts at Westpac provide their thoughts on what they expect from the RBNZ going forward after the OZ central bank left its Official Cash Rate (OCR) on-hold last week.

Key Quotes:

“RBNZ's forecast for 2018 GDP was too high.

GDP figures are critical to the outlook for interest rates.

If RBNZ receives successive downside surprises on GDP growth, then they will turn more dovish.

That is why we are forecasting no hike in the OCR until late-2019, compared to the RBNZ's forecast that the OCR will rise in mid-2019, and compared to what markets are pricing in for a hike in early-2019".