US NFP: Market consensus is looking for a decent 180k gain - Rabobank

Rabobank’s Analysts offer a sneak peek on what to expect from today’s US non-farm payrolls data due to be reported at 1330 GMT.

Key Quotes:

“The market consensus is looking for a decent 180k gain in nonfarm payrolls for January after a slightly weaker number (+148K in December). More generally would it seem that employment growth has slowed down a bit over the course of last year.

This may point to increasing labour market tightness and as such the hourly earnings figures are the key indicator to watch today. Over the past twelve months this gauge has actually slowed down and even an uptick to 2.6% from 2.5% in December is unlikely to change the view that underlying wage pressures and hence core inflation remain contained, which should keep a ‘tightening-happy’ Fed in check.

As a final warning, though, it needs to be added that the Bureau of Labour Statistics will be publishing its annual revisions to the payroll survey. These revisions often result in material adjustments to the data. So, if anything, there is likely to be some additional volatility around the publication of these numbers.”