UK: Looking for a solid 0.5% q/q gain for Q4 GDP - TDS

Analysts at TDS are looking for a solid 0.5% q/q gain for UK’s Q4 GDP (mkt 0.4%), which is slightly stronger than the 0.4% q/q gain that the BoE was looking for in the November IR.

Key Quotes

“Our nowcast model in fact is pointing to even further upside risk from there. This supports our call for the next rate hike from the BoE to come in Q2 of this year; while the BoE was only looking for 2-3 further rate hikes over the 3-year forecast horizon in the November IR, we think that there will be sufficient strength and upside surprises in the inflation and growth data to push the MPC to act earlier than it had initially planned.”