US key market moving data reviewed - Nomura

Analysts at Nomura noted the key data events from the US session.

Key Quotes:

"ADP employment report: According to ADP, private payroll employment increased by 135k in September, in line with consensus but above our expectations (Nomura: 45k, Consensus: 135k). The increase was spread across both service-providing (+88k) and goods-producing (+48k) industries. Historically, ADP has had a hard time capturing the effects of inclement weather on the BLS survey due to differences in classifying payroll employment. Overall, due to weather effects, today’s ADP report may have less information than usual about the BLS employment report this week. Read our full report: ADP Report Above Forecast but Weather Effect Uncertain, First Insights, 4 October 2017. For our full preview of the BLS employment report on Friday, see September Employment Preview, Economics Insights, 4 October 2017.

ISM non-manufacturing: The ISM non-manufacturing index increased solidly by 4.5pp to 59.8 in September. The business activity and new orders indexes increased 3.8pp to 61.3 and 5.9pp to 63.0, respectively, suggesting continued improvement in activity. However, part of the surge in the top-line index was driven by a sharp jump in the supplier deliveries index that rose 7.5pp to 58.0 on a non-seasonally adjusted basis. The stronger-than-usual increase in this measure suggests that disruptions to supply chains, due to recent hurricanes, were material. Out of the total 4.5pp increase in September, 1.9pp was the result of the jump in the supplier deliveries index. Inventories continued to expand and registered 51.5, 2.0pp lower than the previous month. Yet, it appears the pace of inventory growth slowed slightly due to hurricane recovery."