Eurozone political risk diminishing - AmpGFX

The research team at Amplifying Global FX Capital, suggests that the final round of the French Presidential election is this weekend, Sunday 7 May and betting odds give Macron a 90% probability of winning, and Le Pen a 15% chance, but it appears that political risk in the Eurozone has diminished significantly.

Key Quotes

“Further supporting the case for stability, Former Italian PM Renzi regained leadership of Italy’s centre-left Democratic Party (DP). He won a comprehensive 70% of the vote of party members for party leadership.  Renzi is now party leader, but is not currently a member of the Italian government (Chamber of Deputies) since he resigned after the no result in the referendum on constitutional reform he championed in December last year.”

“Renzi, as leader of the DP, could push for an early election by withdrawing support for the current government led by PM Paolo Gentiloni, also a member of DP. The DP govern in coalition with centrist parties in a fractured parliament.”

“However, the DP is still running behind the Euro-sceptic, leftist, Five Star Movement in recent polls.  Bloomberg reports that a 28 April poll showed Five Star had 28.4% support ahead of DP at 27.3%.  And PM Gentiloni polled at 31%, 2 percentage points ahead of Renzi as preferred PM.”

“An election is due to be held no later than 20 May 2018.”