Fed-speak rises to a crescendo today – RBC CM

Research Team at RBC Capital Markets suggests that the Fed-speak rises to a crescendo today, before the blackout ahead of the March 15 FOMC meeting.

Key Quotes

“Speakers include Chair Yellen and the message from other Fed officials has been fairly unambiguous – the default position is that rates rise on March 15 and the onus is on the data or news-flow stopping that happening. Markets now attach almost an 80% probability to a hike and 2½ hikes are priced for the full year. While the probability of a March move seems more likely to rise toward 100% than to fall, further upside for USD on rate expectations is probably limited from current levels.”

“Other than Yellen, speakers include Vice Chair Fisher and regional Presidents Evens (dove) and Lacker (hawk) and Governor Powell (no strong bias). The only key data in the US is the nonmanufacturing PMI which has generally been stronger than expected in recent months (consensus little changed at 54.0).”