UK: Looking for a 0.5% q/q gain in Q4 GDP - TDS

Research Team at TDS suggests that for UK’s Q4 GDP they are looking for a +0.5% q/q gain, in line with consensus, but a decent risk of an upside surprise at 0.6%.

Key Quotes

“Despite the fall-off in December, retail sales still had a good quarter overall so we look for consumer spending to continue to support growth. And while we don’t look for much growth from the goods side of the economy, the drag from IP and construction should at least be smaller than in Q3. Any upside risk is coming more from the survey data than the hard data.”