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1 Dec 2015
EM sentiment continues to improve - TDS
FXStreet (Delhi) – Richard Kelly, Head of Global Strategy at TD Securities, notes that the most noticeable improvement comes to EM sentiment and they found fewer and fewer investors who felt that EM valuations were not much closer to fair, if not somewhat cheap.
Key Quotes
“Taken together, we think this sets us up for an EM environment in which we can see stages of recovery rather than a clear-cut direction, as each of the preconditions for increasing exposure are met.”
“With Fed tightening delivered in December, if that shows no negative implications for markets in the weeks to follow as we expect, that would seem to suggest scope for EM to rally somewhat early in 2016. That may not yet relieve the China and broader EM growth fears, but those boxes are likely to also get ticked as we move deeper into 2016, reinforcing some scope for improvement.”
“One concern we might have on the EM front is that almost half of investors we met with saw commodities as still the asset class likely to be the biggest loser in 2016. If that is the case, it would be difficult to see much divergence with EM. But if Chinese and EM growth concerns fade, we would expect the worries on commodities to fade, as well.”
Key Quotes
“Taken together, we think this sets us up for an EM environment in which we can see stages of recovery rather than a clear-cut direction, as each of the preconditions for increasing exposure are met.”
“With Fed tightening delivered in December, if that shows no negative implications for markets in the weeks to follow as we expect, that would seem to suggest scope for EM to rally somewhat early in 2016. That may not yet relieve the China and broader EM growth fears, but those boxes are likely to also get ticked as we move deeper into 2016, reinforcing some scope for improvement.”
“One concern we might have on the EM front is that almost half of investors we met with saw commodities as still the asset class likely to be the biggest loser in 2016. If that is the case, it would be difficult to see much divergence with EM. But if Chinese and EM growth concerns fade, we would expect the worries on commodities to fade, as well.”