Forex: EUR/USD back to 1.3085/90 after US data

The shared currency is slipping back to the area around 1.3085/90 after US durable goods orders contracted more than forecasted to 5.2% during January, vs. -4.4% estimated and +3.7% previous (revised). Excluding the Transportation sector, orders advanced 1.9%, surpassing the median.

Next on tap in the US would be Pending Home Sales ahead of ECB’s Draghi’s speech.

At the moment, the cross is up 0.21% at 1.3088 and a break above of 1.3125 (MA100d) would bring 1.3319 (high Feb.25) and then 1.3371 (MA21d).
On the flipside, a breakdown of 1.3019 (low Feb.26) would aim for 1.2998 (low Jan.4) and finally 1.2996 (low Dec.12).

Feb 27, 2013

Forex Flash: USDP/JPY upside possible with more accommodative BOJ – UBS

According to Research Analyst Gareth Berry at UBS, “The prospect of a more accommodative Bank of Japan is certainly a good reason to position for further USD/JPY upside, though it is not the only one. The FX flow picture has started to change too in ways that are potentially more far-reaching and long lasting. Deep structural changes are taking place in Japan's real economy, which has disrupted the prevailing balance between supply and demand in the foreign exchange market. Corporates, as a community, had been persistent net sellers of USD/JPY for years, but then suddenly switched sides two years ago. We have seen persistent net yen selling since.”

Rating agencies urge Italy to stay on reform path

The inconclusive outcome of the Italian election is still in focus on Wednesday. The possibility that a coalition government will be formed boosted sentiment and the Italian debt auction held in the European morning went quite smoothly.