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28 Aug 2015
AUD/USD: Bulls taking on bears at 0.72 handle
(Guatemala) - AUD/USD is has scored territory on the 0.72 handle in Asia from a low of 0.7162.
AUD/USD bulls in Asia have taken the baton on from the US session bulls as the price continues to rise in a more upbeat market as investors get behind opportunities in rising commodities and stocks. We have seen metals pick up in Asia along with a positive open on Tokyo while the Shanghai Composite is set to open higher by 1.4% in an environment where the PBoC have been taking measures to spur growth in the economy as well as the Chinese state and state pension fund making investment plans.
However, the risk ahead lies with speculation around the Fed who are data dependent and the US has been showing some nice numbers this week. The US economy data was yet again smashing expectations today, following suit of yesterday's durable goods numbers, while today we got the preliminary reading of the GDP numbers for Q2. This arrived at 3.7% against expectations of 3.2%. Meanwhile, the Fed chatter this week from Lockhart and Dudley makes this Saturday's comments Fed Vice-Chair Fischer, due to speak at the Jackson Hole meeting, all the more important.
AUD/USD: RBA next week
We will then turn attentions to the RBA meeting. Analysts at TD securities, noting that the Q2 capex report in Australia overnight was weaker than expected at –4% q/q, explained that even so, "It may not yet compel the RBA to adopt an easing bias given that AUDUSD is trading below the central bank's assumption of A$ 0.74 in its August forecast (A$ 0.74). We look to the Q3 inflation report as a more likely trigger."
AUD/USD better bid, but far from out of the woods
Although AUD/USD is making a recovery here at the 0.72 handle, in to positive territory with the MA's on the shorter time frames crossing higher and MACD's cross steepening, the upside may come with strong resistance. Karen Jones, chief analyst at Commerzbank explained, "Rallies are expected to struggle at 0.7250/.7327 but will need to overcome the 0.7448 July 21 high and the 0.7450 55 day moving average to negate downside pressure."
AUD/USD bulls in Asia have taken the baton on from the US session bulls as the price continues to rise in a more upbeat market as investors get behind opportunities in rising commodities and stocks. We have seen metals pick up in Asia along with a positive open on Tokyo while the Shanghai Composite is set to open higher by 1.4% in an environment where the PBoC have been taking measures to spur growth in the economy as well as the Chinese state and state pension fund making investment plans.
However, the risk ahead lies with speculation around the Fed who are data dependent and the US has been showing some nice numbers this week. The US economy data was yet again smashing expectations today, following suit of yesterday's durable goods numbers, while today we got the preliminary reading of the GDP numbers for Q2. This arrived at 3.7% against expectations of 3.2%. Meanwhile, the Fed chatter this week from Lockhart and Dudley makes this Saturday's comments Fed Vice-Chair Fischer, due to speak at the Jackson Hole meeting, all the more important.
AUD/USD: RBA next week
We will then turn attentions to the RBA meeting. Analysts at TD securities, noting that the Q2 capex report in Australia overnight was weaker than expected at –4% q/q, explained that even so, "It may not yet compel the RBA to adopt an easing bias given that AUDUSD is trading below the central bank's assumption of A$ 0.74 in its August forecast (A$ 0.74). We look to the Q3 inflation report as a more likely trigger."
AUD/USD better bid, but far from out of the woods
Although AUD/USD is making a recovery here at the 0.72 handle, in to positive territory with the MA's on the shorter time frames crossing higher and MACD's cross steepening, the upside may come with strong resistance. Karen Jones, chief analyst at Commerzbank explained, "Rallies are expected to struggle at 0.7250/.7327 but will need to overcome the 0.7448 July 21 high and the 0.7450 55 day moving average to negate downside pressure."