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1 Jun 2015
US Payrolls expected above 200K – TDS
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Strategist Andrew Kelvin at TD Securities sees US Non-farm Payrolls coming in around 210K for the month of May.
Key Quotes
“Overall, we look for a relatively mixed set of reports, with nonfarm payrolls and the ISM non-manufacturing reports offering the most scope for disappointment”.
“We look for payrolls to come in at 210k, modestly below expectations for a 225k gain, and the unemployment rate remaining flat at 5.4% in line with consensus”.
“This relatively decent data tone would keep us on track for our September Fed hike call and should see the market increase those odds as well, as any hint of underlying improvement in the data should be enough to support higher odds for Fed tightening, but an ISM to 50 or payrolls below 150k could alternatively weigh heavily on our convictions for a September start to rate hikes”.
Key Quotes
“Overall, we look for a relatively mixed set of reports, with nonfarm payrolls and the ISM non-manufacturing reports offering the most scope for disappointment”.
“We look for payrolls to come in at 210k, modestly below expectations for a 225k gain, and the unemployment rate remaining flat at 5.4% in line with consensus”.
“This relatively decent data tone would keep us on track for our September Fed hike call and should see the market increase those odds as well, as any hint of underlying improvement in the data should be enough to support higher odds for Fed tightening, but an ISM to 50 or payrolls below 150k could alternatively weigh heavily on our convictions for a September start to rate hikes”.