Back
14 May 2015
USD/JPY sees 123 by 2015-end - BTMU
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Takahiro Sekido, Japan Strategist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, maintains his view for USD/JPY to see 123 by 2015, and explains the factors behind this bullish view.
Key Quotes
“The global monetary environment is highly accommodative right now, and the US and Japan are no exceptions. The 2Yr rate gap between the US and Japan has not started to widen yet. Given the current US-Japan yield gap, I believe USD/JPY direction may be driven by real money flows, not speculative factors.”
“Topside for USD/JPY has been heavy as the BoJ’s aggressive monetary easing was not intended to lower short-term yields. Also, I did not expect the Fed to aggressively ease, as an exit to monetary easing was expected to be far off. Actually, Japan’s 2Yr and shorter yields have stayed near zero and USD/JPY has remained around USD/JPY120. Looking ahead, I expect USD/JPY to keep rising moderately in the absence of any significant changes.”
“I maintain our view of USD/JPY at USD/JPY123 toward the end of 2015 because of the mixed account changes and as Japanese companies and investors rebalance their businesses and financial portfolios. I do not expect speculative flows to arise under the recent low yield differences among G3 currencies.”
Key Quotes
“The global monetary environment is highly accommodative right now, and the US and Japan are no exceptions. The 2Yr rate gap between the US and Japan has not started to widen yet. Given the current US-Japan yield gap, I believe USD/JPY direction may be driven by real money flows, not speculative factors.”
“Topside for USD/JPY has been heavy as the BoJ’s aggressive monetary easing was not intended to lower short-term yields. Also, I did not expect the Fed to aggressively ease, as an exit to monetary easing was expected to be far off. Actually, Japan’s 2Yr and shorter yields have stayed near zero and USD/JPY has remained around USD/JPY120. Looking ahead, I expect USD/JPY to keep rising moderately in the absence of any significant changes.”
“I maintain our view of USD/JPY at USD/JPY123 toward the end of 2015 because of the mixed account changes and as Japanese companies and investors rebalance their businesses and financial portfolios. I do not expect speculative flows to arise under the recent low yield differences among G3 currencies.”