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12 Aug 2013
Flash: AUD/USD may push up to 0.93/0.95 - RBS
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Greg Gibbs, FX Strategist at RBS notes that Chinese commodity indicators and equities have been generally stronger in recent months but still AUD reached a low just a week ago.
Key Quotes
“The falling AUD despite improving commodity indicators in recent months may reflect a deep scepticism over the medium term outlook in China and domestic indicators in Australia showing that overall business confidence remained weak.”
“There was perhaps a belated response in the AUD to weaker commodity indicators since 2011 that continued after commodity indicators had stabilised.”
“The mood shift in the mining sector in Australia towards a clear peaking in the investment boom made the AUD less response to signs of stability in China.“
“The AUD bear move may have now extended beyond the current pace of activity in China that has stabilised at a still solid pace of growth.”
“For the near term the AUD may continue to recover to test and potential break its current down-trend, sufficient to squeeze out what may be excessive short positions. This could take AUD up to test the key resistance at around 0.93, and as high as 0.95.”
“However, we continue to forecast 0.83 at year end. AUD key resistance at around 0.9290/0.9300, and 38.2% retracement level near 0.95. First Support 0.9130.”
Key Quotes
“The falling AUD despite improving commodity indicators in recent months may reflect a deep scepticism over the medium term outlook in China and domestic indicators in Australia showing that overall business confidence remained weak.”
“There was perhaps a belated response in the AUD to weaker commodity indicators since 2011 that continued after commodity indicators had stabilised.”
“The mood shift in the mining sector in Australia towards a clear peaking in the investment boom made the AUD less response to signs of stability in China.“
“The AUD bear move may have now extended beyond the current pace of activity in China that has stabilised at a still solid pace of growth.”
“For the near term the AUD may continue to recover to test and potential break its current down-trend, sufficient to squeeze out what may be excessive short positions. This could take AUD up to test the key resistance at around 0.93, and as high as 0.95.”
“However, we continue to forecast 0.83 at year end. AUD key resistance at around 0.9290/0.9300, and 38.2% retracement level near 0.95. First Support 0.9130.”