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23 Jan 2015
HSBC/Markit China flash Jan PMI in focus - Westpac
FXStreet (Bali) - Sean Callow, FX Strategist at Westpac, breaks down the key economic releases for this Friday, with special attention to the HSBC/Markit China flash Jan PMI in Asia, following the ECB QE fireworks.
Key Quotes
"The key event in Asia is the HSBC/Markit China flash Jan PMI at 12:45pm Syd/9:45am local. The details of the Dec survey were not particularly supportive, with orders and prices falling sharply while inventories held steady. However, with lunar new year coming later this year, holiday effects will not hurt Jan production. Consensus is 49.5, a touch softer than 49.6 last month and risks seem to be on the downside. Just before this, we will see Japan PMI at 12:35pm Syd/10:45am local. Korea GDP, at 10am Syd/8am local, looks like it will be lower from soft private domestic demand. The market is expecting 2.8% compared to the prior 3.2%."
"Preliminary Jan PMIs in Europe will also be released, and our forecast is in line with market consensus for at 51.0, v 50.6 in Dec. UK Dec retail sales are looking like they will fall, though the effect of lower fuel costs continued in Dec. After the 1.6% print last month, Westpac is forecasting 0.2%. US Dec existing home sales are looking like they will improve, 3.0% higher after falling 6.1% in Nov. The Canadian data will be somewhat overshadowed by the BoC decision on Wed. Retail sales are expected to remain flat, at 0%, while the headline CPI will be weighed down by lower gasoline prices."
"Greek elections take place on Sunday, with a reasonable idea of the outcome likely by around 5:30am Sydney on Monday. Anti-austerity party Syriza seems likely to take the most votes and thus receive the bonus seats and the chance to form government. However they will probably have to cobble together an awkward coalition to reach >50% in parliament. This should add to the reasons to sell EUR."
Key Quotes
"The key event in Asia is the HSBC/Markit China flash Jan PMI at 12:45pm Syd/9:45am local. The details of the Dec survey were not particularly supportive, with orders and prices falling sharply while inventories held steady. However, with lunar new year coming later this year, holiday effects will not hurt Jan production. Consensus is 49.5, a touch softer than 49.6 last month and risks seem to be on the downside. Just before this, we will see Japan PMI at 12:35pm Syd/10:45am local. Korea GDP, at 10am Syd/8am local, looks like it will be lower from soft private domestic demand. The market is expecting 2.8% compared to the prior 3.2%."
"Preliminary Jan PMIs in Europe will also be released, and our forecast is in line with market consensus for at 51.0, v 50.6 in Dec. UK Dec retail sales are looking like they will fall, though the effect of lower fuel costs continued in Dec. After the 1.6% print last month, Westpac is forecasting 0.2%. US Dec existing home sales are looking like they will improve, 3.0% higher after falling 6.1% in Nov. The Canadian data will be somewhat overshadowed by the BoC decision on Wed. Retail sales are expected to remain flat, at 0%, while the headline CPI will be weighed down by lower gasoline prices."
"Greek elections take place on Sunday, with a reasonable idea of the outcome likely by around 5:30am Sydney on Monday. Anti-austerity party Syriza seems likely to take the most votes and thus receive the bonus seats and the chance to form government. However they will probably have to cobble together an awkward coalition to reach >50% in parliament. This should add to the reasons to sell EUR."