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9 Jan 2015
Third consecutive annual gain in JPM’s USD index eyed - JPMorgan
FXStreet (Bali) - In 2015, FX Strategists at JP Morgan expect a third consecutive annual gain in JPM’s USD index.
Key Quotes
"Unlike 2014, some currencies could pivot in mid or late 2015 as a handful of non-US central banks join the Fed in tightening (GBP, CAD, MXN) from a position of cyclical strength rather than balance of payments weakness."
"Commodity markets could also look quite different next year if OPEC curbed supplyin Q1, even though the oil price was likely to drop to the $60s without a cut. Thus we expected a third consecutive annual gain in JPM’s USD index, but narrower than in 2014."
"Targets included EUR/USD 1.15, USD/JPY 128, GBP/USD 1.49, NZD/USD 0.72, USD/BRL 2.80, USD/INR 65, USD/IDR 12600, USD/SGD 1.34 and USD/ZAR 11.15. Turnaround/stability candidates included (end-2105 target in parentheses) USD/CAD and USD/MXNon late-year rates hikes; USD/CNYandUSD/KRWon persistent balance of payments strength; and USD/TRY and USD/RUB on cheap valuations plus high carry."
Key Quotes
"Unlike 2014, some currencies could pivot in mid or late 2015 as a handful of non-US central banks join the Fed in tightening (GBP, CAD, MXN) from a position of cyclical strength rather than balance of payments weakness."
"Commodity markets could also look quite different next year if OPEC curbed supplyin Q1, even though the oil price was likely to drop to the $60s without a cut. Thus we expected a third consecutive annual gain in JPM’s USD index, but narrower than in 2014."
"Targets included EUR/USD 1.15, USD/JPY 128, GBP/USD 1.49, NZD/USD 0.72, USD/BRL 2.80, USD/INR 65, USD/IDR 12600, USD/SGD 1.34 and USD/ZAR 11.15. Turnaround/stability candidates included (end-2105 target in parentheses) USD/CAD and USD/MXNon late-year rates hikes; USD/CNYandUSD/KRWon persistent balance of payments strength; and USD/TRY and USD/RUB on cheap valuations plus high carry."