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24 Jun 2013
Flash: FOMC led to substantial USD unwind - Danske Bank
Danske Bank strategists note that IMM data on Friday showed that investors went into last week's FOMC meeting net long EUR/USD following another substantial unwind of overall long dollar positions.
They feel that this helps explain the strong move lower in EUR/USD late last week which has, however, stabilised around 1.31 overnight, but they still see potential for medium-term dollar strength and a meaningful break below 1.30 over the coming quarters. Further, they add that the IMM data also show that net short AUD positions are now only millimetres from the levels seen in September 2008 following Lehman Brothers’ collapse, which suggests that the violent sell-off could be about to lose some steam. They write, “It is also worth noting an unwind of short CHF positions, which could leave potential for another spike in EUR/CHF if the yen sell-off continues as expected - USD/JPY is now back above 98.”
They feel that this helps explain the strong move lower in EUR/USD late last week which has, however, stabilised around 1.31 overnight, but they still see potential for medium-term dollar strength and a meaningful break below 1.30 over the coming quarters. Further, they add that the IMM data also show that net short AUD positions are now only millimetres from the levels seen in September 2008 following Lehman Brothers’ collapse, which suggests that the violent sell-off could be about to lose some steam. They write, “It is also worth noting an unwind of short CHF positions, which could leave potential for another spike in EUR/CHF if the yen sell-off continues as expected - USD/JPY is now back above 98.”