USD/MXN: Peso to weaken moderately in the coming quarters – MUFG

The Mexican Peso continued its appreciation path in June. Economists at MUFG Bank revise their MXN call to stronger levels as compared to their former forecasts.

Sharp MXN weakening unlikely in the near term

We keep our outlook for a moderate MXN weakening in the coming quarters influenced by concerns over a global economic slowdown amid an environment where Central Banks in the advanced economies have been struggling to curb inflationary pressures. 

A slowdown in the US especially might curtail USD inflows into Mexico. And on the local side, fear of AMLO’s nationalistic policies might affect business confidence, especially in the energy sector. But we don´t expect a sharp MXN weakening in the near term.

USD/MXN – Q3 2023 17.20 Q4 2023 17.30 Q1 2024 17.40 Q2 2024 17.50