Forex Flash: New Zealand strategy profile – Westpac

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - According to Global FX Strategist Sean Callow at Westpac, “A possible peak in NZ economic momentum and record spec long NZD positions in the futures market dovetail with the stronger USD move to knock the kiwi to vulnerable territory. A clear break of 0.8260 could take the pair to the high 0.70s in coming weeks.”

In terms of NZ swaps, near-term momentum is neutral for the 2yr swap rate, so still a 2.80%-2.90% range. Briefing the NZ curve, “the 10yr swap rate should extend higher to 4.00% before this Fed-exit scare dissipates. That would steepen the 2-10yr to the 110bp-115bp area, setting up a potential strategic flattening trade.” Callow adds.